Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 177.295660 216.117931 264.673122 331.115701 421.717157 5.441483e+02 7.280251e+02
2025-02-23 132.328716 176.169442 238.304285 336.910657 498.123485 7.696163e+02 1.310807e+03
2025-03-02 104.687936 147.366370 212.989159 328.373767 544.261035 9.791847e+02 2.105444e+03
2025-03-09 87.045732 127.595354 193.827080 319.895349 583.274648 1.204719e+03 3.292002e+03
2025-03-16 73.983309 111.765328 176.360563 307.176444 606.255688 1.416360e+03 4.929011e+03
2025-03-23 69.676494 109.228007 180.814708 337.855018 743.429327 2.086787e+03 1.108296e+04
2025-03-30 63.217989 101.660276 174.066351 342.332961 818.880475 2.680681e+03 2.190966e+04
2025-04-06 58.870440 97.090191 172.013963 356.802508 934.750144 3.671587e+03 5.714560e+04
2025-04-13 53.490846 89.732355 162.740098 350.428093 981.198730 4.452641e+03 1.352829e+05
2025-04-20 51.893375 89.375332 168.170273 384.670385 1205.310155 7.159105e+03 1.706137e+06
2025-04-27 50.013854 88.140523 171.369526 414.329821 1447.939288 1.157900e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 47.868639 86.030992 172.094292 437.183942 1692.924500 1.865712e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 45.286252 82.836404 170.058104 452.457452 1937.848844 3.075439e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 42.737822 79.399605 166.828409 463.048375 2184.509753 5.227663e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 39.564549 74.192465 158.093704 450.399299 2260.441564 7.328664e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 36.758497 69.506332 149.991614 437.587076 2327.134106 1.040664e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.046000 64.754633 140.991004 418.362585 2321.115476 1.350449e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.738391 65.512382 147.278732 464.960486 3033.717339 6.807699e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 32.217125 63.232463 144.558440 471.815724 3375.929941 2.584863e+06 NaN
2025-06-29 31.222369 62.106624 145.025676 494.055739 4004.178647 1.170138e+08 NaN
2025-07-06 29.519560 59.080898 139.317238 484.241230 4171.076726 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.347507 59.823271 145.298471 537.271517 5643.553234 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 28.945321 59.938424 149.370709 583.801894 7439.713605 NaN NaN